Rochdale By-Election – Football & Racing News – Star Sports

It’s a by-election like no other. For a start, there are no women from a field of 11 candidates. The Labour Party candidate has been disowned by his party. So has The Green Party candidate. The Greens are now supporting an Independent, who is a retired vicar and Just Stop Oil activist facing jail – his court date is today. The Reform UK candidate used to be the MP for the area – for Labour no less until he was brought down by a sexting scandal. Oh, and the odds-on favourite is a six-term Parliamentarian who goes by the name of George Galloway. 

Before a vote has been cast in anger, Rochdale has been one of the most remarkable by-elections of recent times, writes our Political Betting Analyst William Kedjanyi, and whoever wins, this should be a fascinating night for political anoraks and political bettors alike. We’ll be covering any market moves ahead of the vote along with stats, insight and analysis ahead of the latest by-election.

Just scroll below for the latest on Thursday’s vote, and the rest of our political developments!

💷 Where’s the money been going?

It’s been a wild by-election, and the betting hasn’t been far behind. Here’s our political trader John Brackenridge:

“Since we went live with Rochdale we’ve seen swings like never before for well known reasons. Azhar Ali (the artist formally known from Labour) was a 1/6 shot before the party withdrew their support and has been as big as 2/1 before settling at current odds of 5/4. Galloway and the WPoB was as big as 3/1 before shortening to 4/9 and now 8/13. It does feel like it’s a 2 horse race with other rivals having their own issues.”

“We have today added a couple of new markets. ‘Workers Party of Britain vote share %’ in which we make it 11/4 (favourite) for the party to achieve 30-34.99% of the total vote, which may just get them over the line. Another interesting market already proving popular is the Match Bet between Tories and Reform & who will get the most votes, Reform couldn’t quite bridge the gap in the previous 2 by elections but they seem to have more of a chance here. We go 8/11 Conservatives and Evens Reform in a straight up match. Sure there will be plenty more drama as the polling stations open.”

🗳️ Who’s in it to win it?

Without any further ado, here’s the latest betting at 6.00pm:

Workers Party of Britain (George Galloway): 8/13
Azhar Ali, Labour Party (disowned by party, running as independent) : 5/4
Simon Danczuk, Reform UK: 50/1
Iain Donaldson, Liberal Democrats: 50/1
Paul Ellison, Conservatives: 100/1
David Tully (Independent): 500/1
Guy Otten, Green Party (disowned by party): 500/1
Michael Howarth (Independent): 500/1
Rvd. Mark Coleman (Independent): 500/1
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party: 1,000/1
William Howarth (Independent): 1,000/1

Azhar Ali’s effectively running as an independent despite being beside Labour and so is Guy Otten for the Greens, whilst Mark Coleman is getting the support of the Greens locally (and two Labour Officers).

🔵 Reform UK v the Conservatives

Reform: evens
Conservatives: 8/11

📊 Workers Party of Britain Vote Share %

Less than 20%: 8/1
20% – 24.99%: 6/1
25% – 29.99%: 4/1
30% – 34.99%: 11/4
35% – 39.99%: 3/1
40% – 44.99%: 5/1
45% – 49.99%: 9/1
50% or More: 16/1

What do we know about Rochdale?

County/Area: Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate: 78,909
2019 General Election Turnout: 60.1%

According to Electoral Calculus, Rochdale ranks #268 for “Leave”, #463 for “Economic Right Position”, #347 for “National Position” and #55 for “Social Conservative Position” out of 650 seats. The constituency did vote to leave (60%) in 2016, and the then UK Independence Party, now Reform, finished second in the 2015 general election.

There is a significant British Asian community in the constituency, with Muslims accounting for 30% of the population – something that’s been well-covered in the media.

Recent Formguide

🔴 Labour have held the seat since 2010, with three comfortable majorities since a tight contest in 2010.

2015: Labour Majority of 12,442
2017: Labour Majority of 14,819,
2019: Labour Majority of 9,668

Seat History:

Created in 1832, it has often been tightly contested between the Liberal Democrats and Labour. Labour took it from the Lib Dems in 1997 and held it until 2005, when Paul Rowen took the seat into Lib Dem hands.

Political obsessives might remember that in 2010, the seat was brought to national attention when then Prime Minister Gordon Brown was caught on a tape recording describing a local woman, Gillian Duffy, as a “bigot” after having a conversation with her while campaigning (later described as Bigotgate by the UK media). Despite the overall election, Labour still managed to narrowly win the seat from the Liberal Democrats with an 899 majority, with Simon Danczuk leading until he was forced by scandal and Tony Lloyd took over until his passing.

Author: Eugene Morris