Readers enjoyed an excellent first day, with Haatem putting his experience and fine attitude to good use in taking the Vintage Stakes before the incredible Kinross landed another decent prize when taking the Lennox Stakes in great style, giving a healthy profit on the first day.
Ground: Tuesday started on good to soft ground – as described by the jockeys after the first three races – but conditions for Day 2 could be more testing with Thunderstorms and high winds forecast. The Racing Post reported that Goodwood’s forecast on the Met Office predicts rain from 9am through to 6pm, with heavy showers between midday and 3pm and the risk of thunderstorms at 3pm and 5pm, so it’s fair to expect ground that would be soft at best and possibly more testing.
2023 Qatar Goodwood Festival, Day 2
Tuesday 1st August – Saturday 5th August
Live on ITV1 HD and ITV Hub from 1.30pm, and Mark Your Card on Racing TV from 11am
Onto the Day 2 action, and Paddington has arguably been the star of the season and it’s no surprise that he’s favourite to keep his winning run going in the Sussex (3.35) after a tenacious success in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown. Aidan O’Brien’s charge should be fine with trip and ground, although at 2/5 he’s not a betting proposition against a high-class rival in Inspiral, a neck second in the Queen Anne last time.
That pair dominate the betting ahead of Aldaary, Facteur Cheval, Chindit (well behind Inspiral at Royal Ascot) and Charyn, who didn’t land a blow in the Prix Jean Prat, and whilst seeing Paddington again is an exciting prospect, the race can be left alone for betting purposes.
The Oak Tree Stakes (2.25) is always one of the most competitive races of the week and it can often provide decent opportunities to back class fillies at decent prices, which is the case with Matilda Picotte. Her obvious disadvantage is the widest stall in 16, and plenty of luck will be needed. However, if she can get the breaks, then few would have a stronger form case. She was an excellent third in the 1,000 Guineas and found herself in the wrong place (big near side bias) when fourth in the Sandy Lane Stakes behind Little Big Bear, Shouldvebeenaring, and Bradsell. That form is amongst the strongest here and we know the ground will not be an issue should conditions worsen, as she was second to Never Ending Story on her seasonal return at Leopardstown on heavy ground. Back her each/way at 8/1 with starsports.bet, considering the barrier that having the outside draw is going to present.
The Molecomb Stakes (3.00) is a tricky contest to weigh up, with only Hackman (left for dead by Kylian) having soft ground form in the book, and it may be best avoided as a betting contest with that in mind.
A number of progressive three-year-olds make sense in the opening handicap, with Amleto and Westerton sure to improve for the step up in trip whilst Fox Journey has already won over course and distance.
Amelto gets the vote as favourite after an impressive win at Chester which came on soft ground (racecourse called it soft, Timeform heavy), with a subsequent winner and runner up a well beaten three and a half lengths behind in second. An opening mark of 89 seems fair enough (runner-up was a close second off 79 at Pontefract next time out and since won off 80) and trip and ground hold no fears. Of the outsiders, Tony Montana is interesting for the Gosdens after a cosy win at Newbury last time.
The rain is likely to enhance the chances of Tropical Island in the Alice Keppel (4.10pm), who missed the break but won with plenty in hand at Ripon, albeit in a race that was far less competitive than this contest is likely to be. She’s a horse of obvious promise but as with the Molecomb, it could be best to sit back and watch a contest in which Tropical Island and Indispensable appeal most.
Away from the ITV cameras, La Isla Mujeres would appear to have a very strong chance in the Fillies’ Handicap (4.45pm) after her impressive seven-length win at Salisbury last time. She faces a field including plenty of progressive rivals, but many aren’t proven on testing ground and in any case she will take some beating if building on her Salisbury effort.
There’s a similar case to be made regarding Rhoscolyn in the finale (5.20), who is on a very tempting mark considering his past performances and obvious ability, confirmed by a slightly unlucky second at York on heavy last time. He’s got a fine chance at the weights, although he’s been a long time since he landed a prize and even at tempting odds of 4/1 he can be watched.
BACK Amleto 1 pt win in 1.50 Goodwood at 9/4 (⭐
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BACK Matilda Picotte 1 pt each/way in 2.25 Goodwood at 9/1 (⭐
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BACK La Isla Mujeres 1 pt win in 4.45 Goodwood at 7/2 (⭐
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PROFIT/LOSS (AUGUST 2023): PROFIT +6.50 points